Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Quote of the Year

August 24, 2015
Cuban: China fell prey to top mistake an investor can make

"There are so many smart people with so much money chasing so few opportunities, that there are no hidden opportunities any more," he wrote on Cyber Dust, an app similar to Snapchat that Cuban funds and advises.

For the typical retail investor such as myself, I agree with that quote with every fiber of my being. It's one reason I have no interest in being long nor short the stock market. I don't see many opportunities either way, any more than I would in a casino.

I have stated since this blog began in 2007 that it would be harder and harder to make money off of money. Mark Cuban clearly agrees. Too much money chasing too few opportunities!

That's why I had and have been so willing to embrace long-term TIPS and I-Bonds. I was very concerned that many smart people would use so much money to continue to drive real yields down. It therefore seemed prudent to buy sooner rather than later, and preferably before they bought even more. So what does an investor today do? Well...

What is scarier?

1. The 2.77% yield on the 30-year treasury is still an opportunity.
2. The 2.77% yield on the 30-year treasury is definitely not an opportunity.

Both are certainly scary, but in different ways. In any event, some investors expecting 10% returns from here in a world where there is so much money chasing so few ideas, over the long-term, are likely to get seriously f%^ked. :(

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