Wednesday, June 1, 2016

"Normalized" Interest Rates

May 13, 2016
Kiplinger: Interest Rates to Change Little Till Fed Acts

Eventually, the Fed will realize that it’s not getting very far in “normalizing” short-term interest rates back to the 3% level, and it will mull accelerating hikes once it appears safe to do so in light of an improving economy.

Since 1934, the yield of the 3-month treasury bill has been:

1. At the 3% level (3.00% to 3.99%) just 9.6% of the time.
2. At the 0% level (0.00% to 0.99%) a whopping 28.5% of the time.

If the 3% level is normal, I'll eat a bug.

Patient: I think I'm pregnant.
Doctor: Why would you think that?
Patient: I'm craving pickles.
Doctor: You are not pregnant.
Patient: I read on the internet that giving birth to a child is normal.
Doctor: Generally, yes. You aren't pregnant though.
Patient: How sure are you?
Doctor: I am 100% sure that you are not pregnant.
Patient: You haven't even run any tests!
Doctor: Frank, there are two types of people in the world. Those with ovaries and those without.
Patient: OMG! What's wrong with my ovaries?!!

Hahaha! :)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: 3-Month Treasury Bill

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