Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day: U.S. Industrial Chemical Production

Click to enlarge.

The U.S. chemical industry, a more than $800 billion enterprise, is heavily linked to the overall condition of the nation’s economy. It has been consistently leading the U.S. economy’s business cycle due to its early position in the supply chain. - Zacks Investment Research, May 20, 2016

June 15, 2016
The Business Insider: US industrial output fell in May; auto production plummets

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that industrial output - which includes factories, mines and utilities - dropped 0.4 percent from April. The decline reversed the 0.6 percent gain seen between April and March, an improvement that provided some evidence that the industrial economy was turning around after a period of extremely weak performance.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Industrial Production: Nondurable Manufacturing: Chemical


Anonymous said...

What? Are u implying that chemical demand is really driven by New housing starts? And not the other way around?

Off topic....if ONLY I had invested in Sears late yesterday.

dearieme said...

If we're really lucky this recession will go on and on. But probably we'll get a great slump instead.

Stagflationary Mark said...


I saw that Sears got a nice pop today. It might be the end of decades of neglect. I also saw that they are going to sell Die Hard tires. I just hope they don't disappoint customers who might expect to see Bruce Willis install them. ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...


Slump 2016?

I hope that's not a secret campaign slogan.

Stagflationary Mark said...

As a side note, I've been pointing out the risk in Sears since 2007.

Where was everyone else?

October 22, 2007
Retail Trade Employment

Sears' riches may be lay in the ground-Barron's

Bill Ackman, whose hedge fund Pershing Square recently bought 5 million shares, has calculated that the Sears' U.S. retail real estate at just $8.5 billion of its total $20 billion enterprise value, Barron's said.

Here's what I said.

Better extract that value soon. The clock's ticking. Real estate is in a slump and the Internet continues to grow exponentially, just like clockwork.

Sears has been a long-term disaster for investors. I've made some bad long-term calls (who hasn't?), but Sears definitely wasn't one of them.

dearieme said...

Lordy, the Trump Slump!

He would be blamed for it even if entirely innocent.

mab said...

Ron White Shops at Sears

Stagflationary Mark said...


He is always the most innocent man I will ever meet! I know because I asked him. ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...


Well, apparently he was sick on lug nut day!